C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score0.32312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy58%12 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.631 scored
ROI-7.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.091 scored
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.630(1)
Geopolitics-0.630(1)
Russia-0.630(1)
Ukraine-0.630(1)
Drone Attack-0.630(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.990
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.144
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.384
Correct
4SpaceNASA
🤖 The Artemis II crew will hold a public press conference by May 15, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✓ 0.160
Wrong
2TurkeyIsrael
🤖 Turkish authorities will officially identify the gunman involved in the April 7, 2026 shootout near the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul by May 15, 2026.
2commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.656
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.578
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.148
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations
🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✓ 0.012
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO✓ 0.156
Wrong
6SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO✓ 0.029
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES✓ 0.099