RESOLVED WRONG
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
Resolution date
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ConflictGeopoliticsEnergy
An ongoing war involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran has escalated, with Iran retaliating by targeting commercial ships and tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has set an April 6, 2026 deadline for Iran to open the Strait, as the conflict continues to impact global supply chains.
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Resolution
Resolved as wrong on
Based on my knowledge of global events up to April 9, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remained open to international commercial shipping. There were no confirmed reports from Lloyd's of London, the IMO, US or UK naval command, or multiple major shipping news sources indicating a full closure to all international commercial shipping for at least 24 consecutive hours during the forecast period.
Forecasts History
Will happen3
Won't happen5
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Resolution date
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ConflictGeopoliticsEnergy
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