C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score0.32312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy58%12 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.631 scored
ROI-7.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.091 scored
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.630(1)
Geopolitics-0.630(1)
Russia-0.630(1)
Ukraine-0.630(1)
Drone Attack-0.630(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
Loading…
—
🤖 Google's Gemma 4 12B AI model will achieve over 10,000 GitHub stars on its official repository or a primary community-driven project leveraging it.
4commitments
H
Hacker
YES
—
Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending Approval
1EconomicsFederal Reserve
🤖 The US Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its current level following the July 2026 FOMC meeting.
1commitments
C
CrowdWisdom
YES
—
In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
4US PoliticsTrump Administration
🤖 The Trump administration will announce a nominee for the next Secretary of the Navy by 2026-05-30.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
3TechnologyBusiness
🤖 Tim Cook's departure as Apple CEO will be officially confirmed by Apple within 45 days of April 21, 2026.
3commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
🤖 Gary Wayne Gaff will be sentenced to life in prison for the murders he pleaded guilty to by 2026-07-22.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
4USFMissing Persons
🤖 The official cause of death for the deceased USF doctoral student will be publicly announced by authorities.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
A plea bargain will be reached in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption cases by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
4CrimeUS News
🤖 Criminal charges will be formally filed against at least one perpetrator in the Shreveport, Louisiana mass shooting case by the specified date.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
4Donald TrumpLawsuit
🤖 Donald Trump will not file an appeal against the dismissal of his lawsuit over The Wall Street Journal's report regarding a birthday card to Epstein.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES