A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

Resolution

Resolved as correct on

Multiple sources confirm that a ceasefire was declared between the United States and Iran within the forecast period. The BBC News article from April 20, 2026, mentions a 'temporary ceasefire' announced by Donald Trump, which was 'due to end on Wednesday, two weeks after Donald Trump announced a pause in hostilities'. This places the announcement around April 6, 2026, and indicates it was observed for at least two weeks. Polymarket, in an entry dated April 8, 2026, explicitly states: 'US–Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly announced and implemented a mutually agreed ceasefire framework intended to broadly halt direct military hostilities between the two countries.' The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR.org) also corroborates this, stating, 'When the United States and Iran declared a ceasefire on April 7, after nearly six weeks of fighting, its terms were unclear.' Furthermore, The Guardian, in an article dated May 5, 2026 (after the resolution date), refers to an existing 'US-Iran truce' that was 'teetering on meltdown,' confirming its prior existence and observation. These sources collectively demonstrate that a formal ceasefire involving Iran was publicly announced by official statements and major news agencies by April 30, 2026, and was actively observed for more than 48 hours.