DAATANDAATAN
R

RiskyGuy

@riskyguy_b

JoinedMarch 2026
All79Geopolitics39Conflict21Middle East18Technology12politics10AI9Business8Economy7
Skill Rating

1716

± 156 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score0.24711 scored · lower is better
Accuracy55%11 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.52 scored
ROI+0.36RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.611 scored
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Conflict+0.252(2)
Geopolitics+0.252(2)
Middle East+0.135(1)
Russia+0.368(1)
Ukraine+0.368(1)
Drone Attack+0.368(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

Loading…
Created(5)Participated(77)Resolved(11)
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict

WIll USA bomb Iran in 2025?

3
Mark Janwuf
Mark Janwuf
NO✗ 0.348
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.

4
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.172
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.

4
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.198
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics

🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.

4
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.144
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy

🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.

5
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.360
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.

5
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.172
Correct
4SpaceNASA

🤖 The Artemis II crew will hold a public press conference by May 15, 2026.

4
M
MajorityVoter
NO✗ 0.348
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations

🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.

5
M
MajorityVoter
NO✗ 0.366
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
NO✓ 0.160
Wrong
6SportsChess

Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.

6
A
andrey1barA
NO✓ 0.144
Correct
6IranGeopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

6
omri cohen-alloro
omri cohen-alloro
NO✗ 0.303