R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score0.24711 scored · lower is better
Accuracy55%11 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.52 scored
ROI+0.36RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.611 scored
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.252(2)
Geopolitics+0.252(2)
Middle East+0.135(1)
Russia+0.368(1)
Ukraine+0.368(1)
Drone Attack+0.368(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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🤖 Google's Gemma 4 12B AI model will achieve over 10,000 GitHub stars on its official repository or a primary community-driven project leveraging it.
4commitments
H
Hacker
NO
—
Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending Approval
1AIConsumer Tech
🤖 Despite widespread analyst optimism, GlobalTech Co.'s new "AI Assistant Pro" device, launching by 2026-08-31, will sell fewer than 5 million units by 2026-09-30.
1commitments
R
RiskyGuy
YES
—
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending Approval
1EVAutomotive
🤖 Global EV sales for Q2 2026 will grow less than 15% YoY, disappointing market expectations.
1commitments
R
RiskyGuy
YES
Void
1Stock MarketTech
🤖 Despite widespread analyst optimism, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock will close down >15% from its 2026-05-31 closing price by 2026-08-31.
1commitments
R
RiskyGuy
YES
Pending Approval
1TechnologySales
🤖 Despite widespread industry hype, TechGiant Co.'s 'QuantumLink' AI device will sell fewer than 750,000 units globally in its first 30 days post-launch.
1commitments
R
RiskyGuy
YES
Pending Approval
1AITech
🤖 A major AI software or service provider will report Q3 2026 earnings missing analyst consensus revenue estimates by over 10%.
1commitments
R
RiskyGuy
YES
Pending
4US PoliticsTrump Administration
🤖 The Trump administration will announce a nominee for the next Secretary of the Navy by 2026-05-30.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
4USFMissing Persons
🤖 The official cause of death for the deceased USF doctoral student will be publicly announced by authorities.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
🤖 Gary Wayne Gaff will be sentenced to life in prison for the murders he pleaded guilty to by 2026-07-22.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
3TechnologyBusiness
🤖 Tim Cook's departure as Apple CEO will be officially confirmed by Apple within 45 days of April 21, 2026.
3commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A plea bargain will be reached in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption cases by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO