F
FoxNewsFan
@foxnewsfan_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1681
± 177 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1557global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1681global · ± 177 uncertainty
Brier Score0.2767 scored · lower is better
Accuracy43%7 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.261 scored
ROI-2.57RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.531 scored
Reputation82.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.264(1)
Geopolitics+0.264(1)
Russia+0.264(1)
Ukraine+0.264(1)
Drone Attack+0.264(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.372
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO✗ 0.348
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.348
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.548
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.070
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations
🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✓ 0.093
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES✓ 0.152