k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Geopolitics67%6 resolved
ROI-0.04RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-0.3
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
56% YES
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES