The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.

Resolution

Resolved as correct on

Multiple sources from the forecast period (March 7-8, 2026) indicate that major hostilities in the Middle East conflict were ongoing and, in some cases, escalating, rather than formally ending. For example, 'Israel Attacks Beirut and Tehran as Fighting in Middle East Accelerates' (nytimes.com) and 'Putin and Iran’s Pezeshkian Hold Phone Call as Middle East War Escalates' (themoscowtimes.com) both point to an acceleration or escalation of fighting. While Trump claimed the 'Iran war 'already won'' (aljazeera.com), this is a political statement and not a formal end to hostilities. Other articles like 'Trump’s Decisive Stance: US Will Consult Israel on Ending Iran War But Retains Final Authority' (mexc.com) and 'China Eyes ‘Landmark’ Year for US Ties, Urges End to Iran War' (bloomberg.com) discuss the *ending* of the war as a future event or an urged action, implying it had not yet formally concluded. There is no evidence of a formal end to major hostilities by March 8, 2026.