k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Geopolitics67%6 resolved
ROI-0.04RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-0.3
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
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komapcA
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The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
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komapcA
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In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
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komapcA
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Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
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komapcA
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At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
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komapcA
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
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komapcA
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Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
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komapcA
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At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
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komapcA
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The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
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komapcA
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
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komapcA
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The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
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komapcA
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Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
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Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
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komapcA
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
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komapcA