DAATANDAATAN
k
Skill Rating

1599

± 290 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict60%5 resolved
ROI-0.25RS / resolved prediction
RS · Conflict-1.3
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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6AI: 51±21%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
5AI: 30%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
5AI: 60%GeopoliticsConflict

Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
6AI: 53%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
6GeopoliticsConflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

Personal
6
K
komapcA
9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
6GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict

Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict

Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
4GeopoliticsConflict

Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.

4
K
komapcA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
5ConflictGeopolitics

Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?

5
K
komapcA