k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict60%5 resolved
ROI-0.25RS / resolved prediction
RS · Conflict-1.3
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
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Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
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Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
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Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
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At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
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komapcA
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
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komapcA
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
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The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
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Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
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komapcA
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Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
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Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
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Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA