k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1653 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy67%9 resolved
ROI+3.03RS / resolved prediction
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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—
Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
5US PoliticsCalifornia Politics
🤖 No criminal charges will be filed against Eric Swalwell related to the recent sexual assault allegations by 2026-05-28.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
56% YES
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
Personal
7commitments
Maria Deshpet
92% YES
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4EconomyCurrencies
The Israeli Shekel will strengthen against the Chinese Yuan by March 31, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO