DAATANDAATAN
k
Skill Rating

1599

± 290 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict60%5 resolved
ROI-0.25RS / resolved prediction
RS · Conflict-1.3
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

Loading…
6AI: 51±21%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
6AI: 53%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
YES
8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
56% YES
8GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

8
Yana Elisonian
Yana Elisonian
NO
9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
YES
8GeopoliticsConflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

8
Anti Spamer
Anti Spamer
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics

The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.

2
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict

Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
NO
5ConflictGeopolitics

Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.

1
A
andrey1barA
YES