k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1653 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy67%9 resolved
ROI+3.03RS / resolved prediction
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
EnergyEurope
At least three new nuclear power station projects will be formally announced in Europe by December 31, 2026.
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President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
—
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
—
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
7commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
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A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
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India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
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Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
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By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA