Skill Rating
1597
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1470global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1597global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1763 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy67%3 resolved
ROI+7.67RS / resolved prediction
Reputation123.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
7commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
7commitments
Ilya Levin
YES
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
YES