F
FoxNewsFan
@foxnewsfan_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1681
± 177 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1557global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1681global · ± 177 uncertainty
Brier Score0.2767 scored · lower is better
Accuracy43%7 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.261 scored
ROI-2.57RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.531 scored
Reputation82.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.264(1)
Geopolitics+0.264(1)
Russia+0.264(1)
Ukraine+0.264(1)
Drone Attack+0.264(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
7commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations
🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
5US PoliticsCalifornia Politics
🤖 No criminal charges will be filed against Eric Swalwell related to the recent sexual assault allegations by 2026-05-28.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
YES
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
NO
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES
