C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.4685 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Conflict40%5 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Conflict-0.631 scored
ROI-22RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Conflict-0.091 scored
RS · Conflict-110
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
NO
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO