C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score0.32312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy58%12 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.631 scored
ROI-7.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.091 scored
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.630(1)
Geopolitics-0.630(1)
Russia-0.630(1)
Ukraine-0.630(1)
Drone Attack-0.630(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Deni Avdija will be selected to one of the All-NBA Teams for the 2025-26 season by the official announcement.
4commitments
Roman Bar
NO
—
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
6SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
Will significant construction work for the Tel Aviv Metro project begin by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO