R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.2216 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics67%6 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics+0.52 scored
ROI+3RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.611 scored
RS · Geopolitics+18
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.172
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.198
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.144
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO✓ 0.160
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
NO✗ 0.303