R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score0.24711 scored · lower is better
Accuracy55%11 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.52 scored
ROI+0.36RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.611 scored
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.252(2)
Geopolitics+0.252(2)
Middle East+0.135(1)
Russia+0.368(1)
Ukraine+0.368(1)
Drone Attack+0.368(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
4Donald TrumpLawsuit
🤖 Donald Trump will not file an appeal against the dismissal of his lawsuit over The Wall Street Journal's report regarding a birthday card to Epstein.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
4CrimeUS News
🤖 Criminal charges will be formally filed against at least one perpetrator in the Shreveport, Louisiana mass shooting case by the specified date.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
5US PoliticsCalifornia Politics
🤖 No criminal charges will be filed against Eric Swalwell related to the recent sexual assault allegations by 2026-05-28.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Correct
4SpaceNASA
🤖 The Artemis II crew will hold a public press conference by May 15, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations
🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
Deni Avdija will be selected to one of the All-NBA Teams for the 2025-26 season by the official announcement.
4commitments
Roman Bar
YES
—
Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
Personal
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
At least two other major AI developers will publicly publish their prompt injection failure rates by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES