Skill Rating
1597
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1470global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1597global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.2522 scored · lower is better · limited data
RS · Geopolitics+0
Reputation123.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
NO
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
YES