DAATANDAATAN
F
Skill Rating

1681

± 177 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1557global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1681global · ± 177 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3573 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict33%3 resolved
Wtd. Peer Scoreneed 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Conflict+0.261 scored
ROI-10.67RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Conflict+0.531 scored
RS · Conflict-32
Reputation82.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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4GeopoliticsConflict

Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.

4
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.

4
M
MajorityVoter
YES
5AI: 30%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
6AI: 51±21%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
5AI: 60%GeopoliticsConflict

Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
YES
6AI: 53%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.

5
M
MajorityVoter
YES
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
YES
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
6GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
YES
8GeopoliticsConflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

8
Anti Spamer
Anti Spamer
NO
9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
NO
7GeopoliticsConflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

7
Ilya
Ilya
NO
Correct
6IranGeopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

6
omri cohen-alloro
omri cohen-alloro
YES
8GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

8
Yana Elisonian
Yana Elisonian
YES
6GeopoliticsConflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

Personal
6
K
komapcA
YES
8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
YES