C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3826 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics-0.631 scored
ROI-13.17RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics-0.091 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES