C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score0.32312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy58%12 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.631 scored
ROI-7.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.091 scored
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.630(1)
Geopolitics-0.630(1)
Russia-0.630(1)
Ukraine-0.630(1)
Drone Attack-0.630(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
NO
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO
—
Deni Avdija will not be selected for any of the All-NBA Teams by June 30, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
7commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
7commitments
Ilya Levin
NO
—
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
Personal
7commitments
Maria Deshpet
NO
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES