C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3826 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics-0.631 scored
ROI-13.17RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics-0.091 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
NO
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Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
NO
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Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
YES
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES