C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Brier Score0.32312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy58%12 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.631 scored
ROI-7.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.091 scored
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.630(1)
Geopolitics-0.630(1)
Russia-0.630(1)
Ukraine-0.630(1)
Drone Attack-0.630(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4SpaceNASA
🤖 The Artemis II crew will hold a public press conference by May 15, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
2TurkeyIsrael
🤖 Turkish authorities will officially identify the gunman involved in the April 7, 2026 shootout near the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul by May 15, 2026.
2commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Correct
5US PoliticsInternational Relations
🤖 Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a nuclear deal will not officially resume by 2026-05-12.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
5US PoliticsCalifornia Politics
🤖 No criminal charges will be filed against Eric Swalwell related to the recent sexual assault allegations by 2026-05-28.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
Personal
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
A current head of government or head of state from the UK or Norway will lose their position or formally resign due to revelations in the Epstein files by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater will occur within Israel's internationally recognized borders between February 7, 2026, and February 7, 2031.
3commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
Pending
3SportsNBA
Deni Avdija will be eligible for the end of season NBA awards by April 30, 2026.
3commitments
Roman Bar
NO
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
At least two other major AI developers will publicly publish their prompt injection failure rates by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES