R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.2216 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics67%6 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics+0.52 scored
ROI+3RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.611 scored
RS · Geopolitics+18
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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—
Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO