R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score0.24711 scored · lower is better
Accuracy55%11 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.52 scored
ROI+0.36RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.611 scored
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.252(2)
Geopolitics+0.252(2)
Middle East+0.135(1)
Russia+0.368(1)
Ukraine+0.368(1)
Drone Attack+0.368(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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—
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
YES
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
YES
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
YES
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
Personal
7commitments
Maria Deshpet
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
YES
—
The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
7commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
NO
Wrong
6SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
Deni Avdija will not be selected for any of the All-NBA Teams by June 30, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
NO
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
7commitments
Ilya Levin
NO
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO