R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score0.24711 scored · lower is better
Accuracy55%11 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score+0.52 scored
ROI+0.36RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.611 scored
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict+0.252(2)
Geopolitics+0.252(2)
Middle East+0.135(1)
Russia+0.368(1)
Ukraine+0.368(1)
Drone Attack+0.368(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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A current head of government or head of state from the UK or Norway will lose their position or formally resign due to revelations in the Epstein files by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater will occur within Israel's internationally recognized borders between February 7, 2026, and February 7, 2031.
3commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
3SportsNBA
Deni Avdija will be eligible for the end of season NBA awards by April 30, 2026.
3commitments
Roman Bar
YES
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will significant construction work for the Tel Aviv Metro project begin by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES