a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1619
± 254 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1504global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1619global · ± 254 uncertainty
Brier Score0.2564 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy63%8 resolved
ROI+0.69RS / resolved prediction
Reputation105.5 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
6SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✗ 0.360
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES✗ 0.302
Correct
4EconomyCurrencies
The Israeli Shekel will strengthen against the Chinese Yuan by March 31, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✓ 0.160
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1SportsNBA
The Portland Trail Blazers will not win the NBA championship by the end of the 2026 season.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES