k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1599
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1482global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1599global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1653 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy67%9 resolved
ROI+3.03RS / resolved prediction
Reputation130.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
7commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO