DAATANDAATAN
F
Skill Rating

1681

± 177 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1557global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1681global · ± 177 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3054 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Geopolitics25%4 resolved
Wtd. Peer Scoreneed 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics+0.261 scored
ROI-5.5RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.531 scored
RS · Geopolitics-22
Reputation82.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics

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5AI: 65%HealthGeopolitics

Ebola will be confirmed to have spread to the USA by December 31, 2026

5
K
komapcA
YES
4GeopoliticsConflict

Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.

4
K
komapcA
YES
4AI: 42±14%politicsGeopolitics

In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.

4
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
4RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will officially attribute the drone attack on the Moscow high-rise on May 4, 2026, to Ukraine by May 25, 2026.

4
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East

🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.

6
M
MajorityVoter
YES
7Geopoliticspolitics

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

7
K
komapcA
YES
6AI: 65%EconomyEnergy

Стоимость нефти марки Brent превысит 130 долларов США за баррель до 31 декабря 2026 года.

6
K
komapcA
YES
6AI: 35%OPECEnergy

At least one additional country will officially announce its withdrawal from OPEC by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
YES
5AI: 30%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
6AI: 51±21%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
5AI: 60%GeopoliticsConflict

Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
4GeopoliticsIran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume by April 28, 2026.

4
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics

🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.

4
M
MajorityVoter
YES
6AI: 53%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
YES
5US PoliticsGeopolitics

President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
YES
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
6GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
YES
8GeopoliticsConflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

8
Anti Spamer
Anti Spamer
NO
9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
NO
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