DAATANDAATAN
F
Skill Rating

1681

± 177 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1557global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1681global · ± 177 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3054 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Geopolitics25%4 resolved
Wtd. Peer Scoreneed 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics+0.261 scored
ROI-5.5RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.531 scored
RS · Geopolitics-22
Reputation82.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics

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8politicsRussia

Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.

8
Polina Ber
Polina Ber
YES
7GeopoliticsConflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

7
Ilya
Ilya
NO
Correct
6IranGeopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

6
omri cohen-alloro
omri cohen-alloro
YES
8GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

8
Yana Elisonian
Yana Elisonian
YES
6GeopoliticsConflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

Personal
6
K
komapcA
YES
6AI: 45%EconomyEnergy

The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
YES
8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
YES
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