C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · politics
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In the next Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes by March 31, 2030.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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A plea bargain will be reached in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption cases by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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A current head of government or head of state from the UK or Norway will lose their position or formally resign due to revelations in the Epstein files by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
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The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
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The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
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By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
YES
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Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO