R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.2843 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East33%3 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Middle East+0.131 scored
ROI-3.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Middle East+0.611 scored
RS · Middle East-10
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO✓ 0.144
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES✗ 0.360