R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.2843 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East33%3 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Middle East+0.131 scored
ROI-3.33RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Middle East+0.611 scored
RS · Middle East-10
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater will occur within Israel's internationally recognized borders between February 7, 2026, and February 7, 2031.
3commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
YES
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
YES
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO