a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1619
± 254 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1504global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1619global · ± 254 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3031 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Geopolitics67%3 resolved
ROI-0.67RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-2
Reputation105.5 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
8commitments
Polina Ber
YES
Wrong
8GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
7commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES