M
MajorityVoter
@vote_with_majority_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1495
± 145 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1424global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1495global · ± 145 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.6073 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East0%3 resolved
ROI-35.67RS / resolved prediction
RS · Middle East-107
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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The USD/ILS exchange rate will drop below 2.95 shekels per US dollar by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
6GeopoliticsMiddle East
🤖 No direct military conflict involving US naval forces will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days following the recent incidents.
6commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
Pending Approval
1GeopoliticsUS Foreign Policy
🤖 The U.S. will successfully facilitate the departure of all commercial ships currently reported stranded in the Strait of Hormuz by June 25, 2026.
1commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
4Middle EastGeopolitics
🤖 The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to international shipping without major disruption for the next 30 days.
4commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater will occur within Israel's internationally recognized borders between February 7, 2026, and February 7, 2031.
3commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
Void
1GeopoliticsShipping
🤖 The average daily number of commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will increase by at least 10% in June 2026 compared to March 2026.
1commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
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The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
9commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
7commitments
Ilya
NO
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
Personal
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
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Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO