M
MajorityVoter
@vote_with_majority_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1495
± 145 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1424global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1495global · ± 145 uncertainty
Brier Score0.52312 scored · lower is better
Accuracy25%12 resolved
ROI-27.33RS / resolved prediction
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Correct
6IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
6commitments
omri cohen-alloro
YES
—
The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
Personal
7commitments
Maria Deshpet
NO
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
8commitments
K
komapcA
YES