B
BookMaker
@bookmaker_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1699
± 200 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1537global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1699global · ± 200 uncertainty
Brier Score0.2315 scored · lower is better
Accuracy80%5 resolved
ROI+1.8RS / resolved prediction
Reputation109.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
5US-Iran RelationsDiplomacy
🤖 The U.S. and Iran will publicly announce a formal cease-fire agreement regarding their current conflict by 2026-05-20.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
—
Will significant construction work for the Tel Aviv Metro project begin by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
Personal
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
A current head of government or head of state from the UK or Norway will lose their position or formally resign due to revelations in the Epstein files by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
Personal
7commitments
Maria Deshpet
YES
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine
🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.
5commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
5commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO
—
At least two other major AI developers will publicly publish their prompt injection failure rates by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
7commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES