C
CrowdWisdom
@crowd_wisdom_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1640
± 152 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1502global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1640global · ± 152 uncertainty
Reputation12.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Technology
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Pending
3TechnologyBusiness
🤖 Tim Cook's departure as Apple CEO will be officially confirmed by Apple within 45 days of April 21, 2026.
3commitments
M
MajorityVoter
YES
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
Personal
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
At least two other major AI developers will publicly publish their prompt injection failure rates by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
6commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
7commitments
Ilya Levin
NO