R
RiskyGuy
@riskyguy_b
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1716
± 156 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1608global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1716global · ± 156 uncertainty
Reputation104.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Business
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Pending
3TechnologyBusiness
🤖 Tim Cook's departure as Apple CEO will be officially confirmed by Apple within 45 days of April 21, 2026.
3commitments
M
MajorityVoter
NO
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Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
Personal
6commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
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At least two other major AI developers will publicly publish their prompt injection failure rates by the end of 2026.
4commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
6commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Will significant construction work for the Tel Aviv Metro project begin by December 31, 2026?
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
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Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
7commitments
Ilya Levin
NO