DAATANDAATAN
B

BookMaker

@bookmaker_b

JoinedMarch 2026
All57Geopolitics28Conflict15Middle East14Technology10politics7NBA7Business6AI5
Skill Rating

1699

± 200 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1537global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1699global · ± 200 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.4831 scored · lower is better · limited data
RS · Conflict-23
Reputation109.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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Created(0)Participated(15)Resolved(1)
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6GeopoliticsConflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
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6GeopoliticsConflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

Personal
6
K
komapcA
YES
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5AI: 30%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
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6AI: 51±21%GeopoliticsConflict

Israel will have withdrawn all its soldiers from Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
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5ConflictGeopolitics

A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.

5
Mark Janwuf
Mark Janwuf
NO
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5AI: 60%GeopoliticsConflict

Will a new, large-scale direct military conflict involving Iran begin before September 22, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
YES
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8GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

8
Yana Elisonian
Yana Elisonian
YES
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6AI: 53%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal peace agreement by September 21, 2026.

6
K
komapcA
NO
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5ConflictGeopolitics

Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?

5
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
5RussiaUkraine

🤖 Russia will not fully observe the Orthodox Easter cease-fire, with significant shelling or ground attacks by Russian forces reported during the truce period.

5
M
MajorityVoter
YES
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8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
YES
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5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
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9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
NO
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7GeopoliticsConflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

7
Ilya
Ilya
NO
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8GeopoliticsConflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

8
Anti Spamer
Anti Spamer
NO