DAATANDAATAN
B

BookMaker

@bookmaker_b

JoinedMarch 2026
All57Geopolitics28Conflict15Middle East14Technology10politics7NBA7Business6AI5
Skill Rating

1699

± 200 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1537global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1699global · ± 200 uncertainty
Brier Score0.2315 scored · lower is better
Accuracy80%5 resolved
ROI+1.8RS / resolved prediction
Reputation109.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History

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Created(4)Participated(55)Resolved(5)
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8politicsRussia

Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.

8
Polina Ber
Polina Ber
YES
—
8AI: 90%GeopoliticsConflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

8
K
komapcA
YES
—
7SportsChess

Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

7
K
komapcA
YES
—
7Geopoliticspolitics

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

7
K
komapcA
NO
—
5GeopoliticsMiddle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

5
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
3SportsNBA

Deni Avdija will be eligible for the end of season NBA awards by April 30, 2026.

3
Roman Bar
Roman Bar
YES
—
4SportsNBA

Deni Avdija will be selected to one of the All-NBA Teams for the 2025-26 season by the official announcement.

4
Roman Bar
Roman Bar
NO
—
9GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

9
K
komapcA
NO
—
8politicsElections

Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.

8
Avihai Zarouk
Avihai Zarouk
NO
—
7GeopoliticsConflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

7
Ilya
Ilya
NO
—
6TechnologyGeopolitics

Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.

6
Polina Ber
Polina Ber
NO
—
7AITechnology

By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.

Personal
7
Ilya Levin
Ilya Levin
NO
—
8GeopoliticsConflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

8
Anti Spamer
Anti Spamer
NO
Wrong
6SportsChess

Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.

6
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
4SportsNBA

Deni Avdija will not be selected for any of the All-NBA Teams by June 30, 2026.

4
A
andrey1barA
YES
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